Governance¶
Governance structure and progressive decentralization roadmap for Prediction DAO.
Current Governance Structure¶
Guardian Multisig¶
Composition: 5-of-7 multisig
Powers: - Emergency pause capability - Initial parameter tuning - Temporary intervention if critical issues
Members: TBD during launch phase
Futarchy Process¶
All non-emergency decisions go through futarchy:
- Community votes on welfare metrics
- Proposals submitted with bonds
- Prediction markets determine outcomes
- Execute if markets indicate approval
Progressive Decentralization¶
Phase 1: Guarded Launch (Year 1)¶
Guardian Powers: - Full emergency pause authority - Can update certain parameters - Monitor system closely
Rationale: New system needs close oversight
Spending Limits: - 50,000 ETC per proposal - 100,000 ETC daily aggregate
Phase 2: Increased Threshold (Year 2)¶
Changes: - Guardian threshold: 5-of-7 → 6-of-7 - Longer timelock periods - Higher spending limits - More community oversight
Rationale: Require broader consensus for intervention
Phase 3: Reduced Authority (Year 3)¶
Changes: - Guardians can only pause, not modify - Community can override guardian pause - Significantly higher spending limits - Automated monitoring reduces need for intervention
Rationale: System proven stable, reduce central control
Phase 4: Full Decentralization (Year 4+)¶
Changes: - Guardian multisig disbanded - All decisions via futarchy - Meta-governance: system governs itself - No special privileges for anyone
Rationale: System mature enough for full autonomy
Governance Parameters¶
Adjustable Parameters¶
Parameters that can be changed via governance:
Economic: - Bond amounts (proposal, oracle, challenge) - Spending limits - LMSR liquidity parameter - Fee structure
Timing: - Review period duration - Trading period range - Challenge period - Timelock duration
Welfare Metrics: - Add new metrics - Adjust metric weights - Change calculation methods - Update data sources
Parameter Change Process¶
- Submit proposal for parameter change
- Goes through full futarchy process
- Market determines if change improves welfare
- If approved, parameter updated after timelock
Welfare Metric Governance¶
Current Metrics¶
- Treasury Value (Primary) - Weight: 40%
- Network Activity (Secondary) - Weight: 30%
- Hash Rate Security (Tertiary) - Weight: 20%
- Developer Activity (Quaternary) - Weight: 10%
Changing Metrics¶
Adding New Metrics:
- Propose new metric definition
- Specify calculation methodology
- Provide data sources
- Markets decide if addition improves governance
Adjusting Weights:
- Propose new weight distribution
- Justify based on protocol priorities
- Markets evaluate impact on decision quality
Meta-Governance¶
System Governs Itself¶
Once fully decentralized, protocol upgrades go through futarchy:
Upgrade Process:
- Propose contract upgrade
- Specify changes and rationale
- Select welfare metric (typically treasury value)
- Market decides if upgrade improves protocol
- If approved, UUPS proxy updated
Benefits:
- No external control
- Economically optimal decisions
- Continuous improvement
- Self-correcting system
Emergency Procedures¶
When Guardians Can Pause¶
Valid Reasons: - Critical smart contract vulnerability - Oracle manipulation detected - Market manipulation detected - Significant unexpected behavior
Invalid Reasons: - Disagreement with community decisions - Political pressure - Personal interests
Pause Process¶
- Guardian multisig detects issue
- Threshold of guardians agree (5-of-7)
- Emergency pause activated
- Public announcement with explanation
- Investigation and fix
- Community review
- Unpause via futarchy vote
Overriding Guardian Pause¶
After Year 3, community can override:
- Token holders vote
- Requires supermajority (67%)
- Unpause if approved
- Guardian action logged for accountability
Governance Participation¶
Who Can Participate¶
Submit Proposals: Anyone with 50 ETC bond
Trade on Markets: Anyone with ETC for gas + positions
Report Oracle Values: Anyone with 100 ETC bond
Challenge Reports: Anyone with 150 ETC bond
Vote on Metrics: Token holders (if applicable)
Incentives¶
Aligned Incentives: - Traders profit from accurate predictions - Proposers bond returned if legitimate - Oracles build reputation - Token value increases with good governance
Penalties: - Spam proposals lose bond - False oracle reports lose bond - Frivolous challenges lose bond
Governance Analytics¶
Key Metrics to Track¶
Participation: - Number of proposals per month - Trading volume per market - Number of unique traders - Oracle accuracy rate
Outcomes: - Proposal approval rate - Average welfare metric improvement - Challenge frequency - Ragequit utilization
Health: - Market liquidity - Price volatility - Time to resolution - Bond forfeiture rate
Future Governance Features¶
Potential Additions¶
Delegation: Delegate trading/voting power
Reputation: Track historical accuracy
Quadratic Mechanisms: QF or QV for certain decisions
Prediction Markets for Metrics: Markets decide metric weights
Multi-chain: Cross-chain governance coordination